Study Findings on Citation Probability
A recent analysis by Surfer SEO reveals that pages ranking for multiple “fan-out” queries significantly enhance their chances of being cited in Google’s AI Overviews (AIOs). The study shows a staggering 161% increase in citation likelihood for these pages compared to those that rank solely for the main query. It highlights a strong correlation (Spearman ≈ 0.77) between the number of fan-out queries a page ranks for and its citation probability.
Understanding Query Fan-Out
Query fan-out refers to the AI’s ability to expand an initial query into related sub-queries, capturing various user intents. This mechanism enables the AI to synthesize an overview from a broader range of sources, which can include pages that do not appear in the top organic results. Essentially, it shifts the focus from optimizing for a single query to ensuring comprehensive topical coverage across multiple related queries.
Implications for SEO and Content Strategy
Given that 76% of analyzed keywords triggered AI Overviews, the implications for SEO professionals are clear. To increase the likelihood of citation, create content that addresses a wider array of related questions. This demands a shift in strategy towards:
- Topical Breadth: Develop in-depth content that covers multiple facets of a topic.
- Citation Metrics: Track AI citations as a distinct KPI, not just organic rankings.
- Diversified Discovery: Recognize that many citations may come from pages not ranked in the top 10, emphasizing the need for authoritative content.
- Controlled Experiments: Test content variations to see if they influence AI citation rates.
Limitations and Considerations
The study cautions against assuming that correlation equates to causation. The variability in fan-out signals—affected by personalization and context—means that achieving a high ranking for fan-out queries does not guarantee citation. Furthermore, about 68% of cited pages did not appear in the top 10 for either the main query or its fan-outs, complicating the traditional SEO narrative.
Predictions for the Next 6–12 Months
As AI Overviews become more integral to search results, citation strategies will gain prominence. Expect SEO practices to adapt, focusing on broader content development and enhanced measurement tactics. Content creators who prioritize topical relevance across fan-out queries will likely see improved citations, while traditional ranking strategies may need to evolve to keep pace with AI’s growing influence on visibility.
